Let's break this down based on shows that have been renewed or shows that other sites think are safe and how CHUCK is doing in its slot and day comparatively. These numbers are based on the last 5 NEW episodes (updated with April 22nd numbers):
MONDAYS (note: only CHUCK had a new episode April 11th)
8pm: CHUCK (1.7), 1.7, 1.6, 1.5, 1.3, 1.3 (on the bubble)
9pm: THE EVENT (1.4), 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 1.3, 1.1 (99.9% CANCELLED)
10pm: HARRY'S LAW 1.8, 1.8, 1.6, 1.6, 1.4 (potentially RENEWED)
10pm: LAW & ORDER: LA (Apr. 18) 1.1 (not looking good)
8pm: COMMUNITY (1.8), 1.8, 1.7, 1.8, 1.4, 1.4 (RENEWED)
10:30pm: OUTSOURCED 1.4, 1.4, 1.5, 1.4, 1.7 (guesswork)
LAW & ORDER: LA was put up in place of THE EVENT and HARRY'S LAW this past week, or we would potentially have seen those shows drop along with CHUCK. I actually think that the drop to 1.3 is the effect of NBC not running much new programming the previous week, so few eyes were on any promotions NBC had that week. And since CHUCK had been off for several weeks, viewers simply didn't know it was on. So, I will make a bold prediction that CHUCK returns to
So what does this mean? Simply based on the numbers, and despite the recent prediction by TVBytheNumbers that CHUCK is likely to be cancelled, my prediction is... that CHUCK will be cancelled.
Oh wait, no... I meant renewed. Yes. Renewed... for 11-13 more episodes returning in the fall of 2011. I am also predicting that OUTSOURCED gets renewed for 13 episodes.
Is this based on some super secret fake insider NBC source info? Probably not. But are my fake sources better than everyone's real sources? You know they are!
Don't get your hopes up... I may just be guessing.
GET YOUR HOPES UP!