Let's break this down based on shows that have been renewed or shows that other sites think are safe and how CHUCK is doing in its slot and day comparatively. These numbers are based on the last 5 NEW episodes (updated with April 22nd numbers):
MONDAYS (note: only CHUCK had a new episode April 11th)
8pm: CHUCK (1.7), 1.7, 1.6, 1.5, 1.3, 1.3 (on the bubble)
9pm: THE EVENT (1.4), 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 1.3, 1.1 (99.9% CANCELLED)
10pm: HARRY'S LAW 1.8, 1.8, 1.6, 1.6, 1.4 (potentially RENEWED)
10pm: LAW & ORDER: LA (Apr. 18) 1.1 (not looking good)
THURSDAYS
8pm: COMMUNITY (1.8), 1.8, 1.7, 1.8, 1.4, 1.4 (RENEWED)
10:30pm: OUTSOURCED 1.4, 1.4, 1.5, 1.4, 1.7 (guesswork)
LAW & ORDER: LA was put up in place of THE EVENT and HARRY'S LAW this past week, or we would potentially have seen those shows drop along with CHUCK. I actually think that the drop to 1.3 is the effect of NBC not running much new programming the previous week, so few eyes were on any promotions NBC had that week. And since CHUCK had been off for several weeks, viewers simply didn't know it was on. So, I will make a bold prediction that CHUCK returns to
So what does this mean? Simply based on the numbers, and despite the recent prediction by TVBytheNumbers that CHUCK is likely to be cancelled, my prediction is... that CHUCK will be cancelled.
Oh wait, no... I meant renewed. Yes. Renewed... for 11-13 more episodes returning in the fall of 2011. I am also predicting that OUTSOURCED gets renewed for 13 episodes.
Is this based on some super secret fake insider NBC source info? Probably not. But are my fake sources better than everyone's real sources? You know they are!
P.S.
Don't get your hopes up... I may just be guessing.
P.P.S
GET YOUR HOPES UP!
OMG OMG Are you sure? Of course You're sure right?
ReplyDeletesigh... Thank you Magnus thank you.
I've lost my mind since last episode and now I can breath.
nena
I am not sure about anything. Just making a prediction. :)
ReplyDeleteI am getting my hopes up!!! Hope your prediction is correct as it always is!
ReplyDeletemy day was the worst ever until now..thanks for lightened my day..
ReplyDeleteellen
you, Magnus Anton Lekay aka "Razorback sexy Meow Meow" are full of WIN. and not the tigerblood kind of winning - the Sarah Walker belly-dancing kind of winning. thank you! or in Tagalog, salamat.
ReplyDelete-ChuckTheWalker
Here's hoping your guess work is spot on, but if not.. well, you'll edit it to make it seem like you made the other prediction, so hey!
ReplyDeleteBut yeah. Here's hoping!
" So, I will make a bold prediction that CHUCK returns to 1.5 on Monday. If I am wrong, I will just edit this page to make it seem like I said the right thing."
ReplyDeleteXD
LOL
You are THE MAN
Thank you for your "honesty" about editing this page if you are mistaken. LOL
ReplyDeleteWhere does the sudden impulse of optimism come from? The numbers aren't exactly saying anything different than they did 2 weeks ago. And why 11-13 episodes?
ReplyDeleteBut whatever... you MAY be right, right? :)
Bob
Bob, this is what I hear from you "BlahblahblahblahlikeIknowwhatIamtalkingabout."
ReplyDeleteAnonymous, I am nothing if not honest about my dishonesty.
Not exactly what I was trying to imply, but that's ok. :)
ReplyDeleteBob
I know what you were trying to do, you sneaky devil!
ReplyDeleteI realize you didn't say that Chuck is getting renewed but people will think that is what you said since you are not known for being positive about these things without having good cause. Naturally this is going to make most fans think you are saying it will be renewed. I don't think that is what you mean, or is it?
ReplyDeleteNancy
Nancy, you are right. If I was saying it is renewed, no doubt about it, I would have said that. But you are also right when you say that I don't tend to be positive without reason. So... take that for what it is worth (which is whatever it is worth to individual fans).
ReplyDeleteI have to agree with you. Simply put Chuck does better in the fall. They (NBC)should run new programming in the Spring (so we can watch it tank as well) to brighten up their line-up and the reduced fees for syndication should help. Maybee they can defer some income from another show now that this other show does not have to pay some donkey one million dollars per episode.
ReplyDeleteOh Magnus, how I love thee. Let me count the ways.
ReplyDelete1. This post
2. Your spiel in the 'Post a comment section'
3. Last weeks podcast
....
Alexandra
Alexandra, if you are over 18, female, and single... I am totally available.
ReplyDeleteMagnus, I'm 23 and indeed female but unfortunately taken (2 from 3!) Where were you 4 months ago? In all seriousness though man I do appreciate everything you do for this fandom and love the cheekiness and sarcasm of your posts. If Chuck does get cancelled I'll be mainly upset about not having them in my life to read.
ReplyDeleteNow if you don't mind, I'm off to harass TVBTN about Chuck and admire you from afar...
Alexandra
Just my luck!
ReplyDeleteThough, if it is cancelled, I will keep doing some site or another. I will always be around!
Unless I die in which case I won't.
I have been a loyal read for about a year and you have never done something like this without knowing for sure. I am considering this a absolute assurance that we got season 5.
ReplyDeleteBillyL
Billy, there is no absolute assurance. The only absolute is that there are no absolutes.
ReplyDeleteIm truly suprised that you posted such positive outlook. I never expetced that from you. Im speacles.
ReplyDeleteYou are speacles?
ReplyDeleteThat doesn't sound good. You should see a doctor about that.
speechless!!!
ReplyDeleteDR thanks for the optimism. I actually feel the same way. To me its no longer about the actual ratings though any bump up tonight for what will be probably a top 3 episode this season so far, Gary Cole and LeJudkins how can it not be after all, would help. But it is about the Pilots. So far the stuff out there has no real positive buzz or not much. There are no can't misses like last season though that may be a good thing for them, Lone Star anyone? But Chuck performed better than any new drama except Harry's Law though LOLA is still to be seen for a whole season. Speaking of which would they please put that show out of its misery? I lasted for the first 5 minutes last week and was bored stiff. And if you can make a massacre of women and children boring then that's a real talent lol.
ReplyDeleteSo with that I think its chances for season 5 are better than 50/50 right now but its still a tossup.
Yep, this is definitely the last place I thought would post a renewal prediction. Not that you are a negative person, Magnus but you don't seem like the type of guy who delivers happy news just to cheer people up. I am going to remain cautiously optimistic but with a bit more optimism now. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteNotadambaldwin
Check your paypal account, brother! I gave most of what I had to Bailey and five to you! Not much but more than I would give to anyone else. Love you man!
ReplyDeleteTerrel
Thanks, Terrel! Glad you helped out LittleChuckFan's fundraiser too!
ReplyDeleteBTW thanks Magnus for using your followers to help out Bailey. She really is such a great kid and the true star of the fanbase. Its been an honor to work with her on our E4Y project.
ReplyDeleteE4Y? Oh, you mean the money that would have been better used for charity?
ReplyDeleteObviously, as you can see, I am militantly pro-charity. :)
Hey Magnus, did I do something wrong - my post was there and now its not?
ReplyDeleteI didn't delete any post, PeterO.
ReplyDeleteI just checked, I think you are looking for a post in the wrong blog posting. Check out CYT65.
ReplyDeleteYou know what I just thought about? Remember when that hateful crazy shipper sent me AND THE ENTIRE fandom website admins an email detailing what a douchie douche I was and how they hoped I would be murdered in my sleep and how they wished for CHUCK to end because then my fifteen minutes (which mind you, at the time, was already above 150,000 minutes) of fame would be over?
ReplyDeleteYeah, that idiot is probably still reading everything I say and today has to wrestle with the fact that not only am I more evil and powerful than ever, but that I won't be going anywhere for another year... and that it, on some level, makes that person HAPPY.
MOOHAHAHAHAHAHA! I am evil because good is dumb.
Opps - to many tabs open at one time - thanks for finding it!
ReplyDeleteAnd I hope you don't mind since I think this bears repeating here ~
Ok Chuck fans - the ray of hope that Magnus is sharing with you is no reason to sit back and say we got it in the bag.
Monday Night TV is Jungleland and there needs to be as many sets of eyes watching Chuck live as possible.
Make an honest stand~~Tonight in Jungleland. (with apologies to that other Jersey native)
I was looking at what is going to be on this week and I saw Chuck once on monday and again on wedensday but they are the same episode so does this mean they are testing the ratings to see if wedensday will be a better fit for Chuck because if that is the case then this might be a good sign for Chuck. what do you think Magnus/Razorback?
ReplyDeleteYou mean in Canada?
ReplyDeleteIt's not even a real country!
A 13, hope its 22, ep renewal would be a good stop gap measure for Comcast so that they can get their programming plans in order. They got delayed and the pilots were ordered by the old regime. Renewing Chuck for 13 gives them time to work on those plans more so it actually makes a lot of sense. I just would love that round 100 ep number but what I would like would be whatever the order is to have it stated that it is the end so it can be written that way. Give them a solid basis for the final stories.
ReplyDeleteI think they have a good idea of what they want to do for a 5th season. Will it be good? Will it be interesting? I don't know but will it be nicely wrapped up just because they think they got 13 more episodes before it all ends? Doubt it.
ReplyDeleteYou are probably right as it simply isn't Fedak's style to do it though Josh did one with The OC. But in any event Chuck's renewal chances will be affected by outside issues again. That being the delay in Comcast taking over. If they think renewing Chuck helps them work on their long range plans in the interim that's great.
ReplyDeleteDR, youre right. If they're not giving a clean ending with how things have looked to end this season, they never are.
ReplyDeleteI just hope whatever they do to end season 4 doesnt royally screw things up.
J says ...
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update Magnus ! If it pans out this way , would NBC tell WB that they have a set final # of eps and that's it ? Also would the show still be on Monday nights next year ? Or would like you suggested way back when be moved to Friday nights ?
:)
I got two words ,
ReplyDeleteCOMIC CON !!!!!!!!!!!!
and
thank you !
- Janet
J, I don't know if NBC would ever tell WB that it will be a set number of episodes and then that's it. However, WB might tell NBC that it will make a deal for a certain amount of episodes and no more than that (simply because they are taking losses). But I don't know any of that for certain, just speculating.
ReplyDeleteAs for a move... if I had to make a prediction right now, it would be no move. Yeah, it is ridiculous but I think they are going to run CHUCK, HARRY'S LAW and LAW & ORDER: LA together again next year.
Its too bad chuck never ended up on thursdays. Its blend of comedy\action fits in better with the thursday comedies than monday dramas.
ReplyDeleteTogether again meaning... on Mondays, not together again in that scheme on the schedule since that has never happened before.
ReplyDeleteAs far as I know in my part of canada yes I don't know about USA. But anyways you didn't answer my question Magnus/Razorback. So I will repeat what I said here.
ReplyDelete"I was looking at what is going to be on this week and I saw Chuck once on monday and again on wedensday but they are the same episode so does this mean they are testing the ratings to see if wedensday will be a better fit for Chuck because if that is the case then this might be a good sign for Chuck. what do you think Magnus/Razorback?"
You mean in Canada?
ReplyDeleteIt's not even a real country!
J says ...
ReplyDeleteChuck is on the space channel ( our SYFY equivalent ) on Wednesday nights here in Canada . Not NBC .
In other words, what the Space Channel in frakin' Canada does could not be any more meaningless to the grand or tiniest scheme of what NBC in the US of A decides to do.
ReplyDeleteJ says ...
ReplyDeleteYup . They air the previous Monday episode on their channel ( space ) every Wednesday night throughout the year . Sometimes on Sundays too . Which I hardly doubt matters to NBC . Now I got " blame Canada " stuck in my head lol
Really looking forward to the episode tonight !!
hahahahahahahah Canada. love it.
ReplyDeleteMagnus,
ReplyDeleteI LOVE YOU!
I've decided like 2 episodes ago to retroactively NOT care about the numbers anymore it started to annoyingly take away my kid like enjoyment of the show bit by bit ... so what happens happens.
ReplyDeleteWill I be sad if it's not coming back? HELL YA ... that show almost literary got me through university by giving me a bust every Monday!
BTW that "hunting down Nielsen Families to watch the show" project I REALLY hope that that doesn't have the opposite effect ... I mean it's like with the Jehovah's Witnesses ringing my doorbell at 7 in the morning on a freaking Saturday ... I try my hardest to come up with the best pranks to get back at them for such a rude awakening! ;) Right now I'm working on a "Exorcist" kinda Theme to that project ... does anybody know where I can get white contacts?
OK I got off track, sorry. What I lastly wanted to say was this: Magnus I always appreciated your site and your podcast. Why? Well you managed to always go about it with candor and a reality check at heart and still be giddy (sorry I couldn't think about a more fitting word right now :) about the show. I feel save around here in my belief that the show never aimed or for that matter claimed to be a drama or a spy show or a chick flick or a action movie or for that matter a show like Lost. The only thing it every wanted to be was NERD and yes family friendly ENTERTAINMENT that uses the afore mentioned aspects to reach that goal by throwing a overflowing DataBase of PopCulture knowledge at use that makes me chuckle weeks at end and they delivered! I could say more ... scratch that I want to say more though I probably already have use up to much space, oops, so please don't ban me from ever posting again. ;)
DD
DD, I know if someone cold-called me at my Nielsen household that I would avoid that show like the plague.
ReplyDeleteI know it's like the dude sitting next to you on the plane grinning like his life depends on it almost bursting with excitement about the prospect of telling me how J made his life turn around and me just praying PLS don't be a serial killer ... PLS don't be a serial killer!! At what point did we loose common sense again?
ReplyDeleteDD
The last few weeks obsessing about the ratings had been starting to take away the fun I have watching the show. You know how it is... You feel the end coming and you are unable to focus on the positive. You just dread the end...
ReplyDeleteI know how depressed I felt all day after seeing last week's ratings. And I know it makes no sense at all feeling that way about a TV show...
A few hours ago, I came to this site like I do every day. And I did not expect to find a post like this.
I know that nothing is set in stone and that things are still up in the air. But I also know that Magnus gave us all a lot of hope today.
Magnus, you are the greatest thing that ever happened to this fandom. And I know you will not like me saying this. But in one single post, you probably boosted everyone's moral up the hill. I know that I personnally look forward to tonight's episode more than I did for a long time.
And I have the feeling that you did not just do this today for the sake of a giving one more exclusive info... You did this because you felt we all needed this badly now.
You are a man who only talks when he has something important to say. Thanks for doing it today.
Magnus: you made my day!
Wow, Nini... not sure I am the greatest thing that ever happened to this fandom... oh wait, yeah. I am.
ReplyDeleteThanks for noticing! Love you!
Wow that's some optimistic news !! Now are you that optimistic that Ali Adler will be back as well :) ?
ReplyDeleteKevin
Magnus, Canada IS a real country!
ReplyDeleteI'm American and I don't like it when people insult our ally and neighbor in the North.
After all, Canada produced such good shows as Today's Special and You Can't Do That on Television, so they aren't all that bad! ;-D
Anonymous says ...
ReplyDeleteShould we continue to keep our hopes up if we remain at 1.3 for the next 3 episodes ?
*sadface*
Nothing to worry about. It is all going as planned.
ReplyDeleteMoohahaha!
These ratings are terrible. It seems the nielsen's sampled it and moved on. It's quite frustrating that these are the ratings now. IsNBC making any money from Chuck now. I won't be suprised either way. Hoping they give it a short order but anything is possible at this point.
ReplyDeleteThe original Rich
The original Rich hmmmm? I'm the original Rich! oh wait, my name isn't even Rich. you're right, maybe you are the original Rich. Maybe I should go back to Kevin... oh wait. There is someone named Kevin posting here too. lost online without a unique identity, such a horrible fate.
ReplyDeleterich?
Final Ratings update:
ReplyDeleteThe A18-49 came in at 1.32. I don't want to overly celebrate that it was 2 one-hundredths higher than last week, but I'm just glad it wasn't lower.
Despite the competition from various sports that are in playoff mode, the Male 18-49 rating went up a smidge (1.49 vs. 1.44). The female ratings were close to last week (1.15 vs. 1.17).
Men 18-34 was still low compared to historic levels, but it went up a tenth (1.03 vs 0.9).
I'm almost afraid to say this, but I think the show has found its basement, ratings-wise. TV viewing was down for most demos, but Chuck's ratings didn't drop. It gained share of what viewers were watching.
But, can the ratings go up again?
It may depend on how much promotion future episodes get and how good the episodes look in the promos.
Translation: I don't have a clue.
Now that the NFL talks are on hold until May 16th , does that partially improve the shows chances a little ? Chuck also won the USA Today SOS poll , for what ever that's worth .
ReplyDeleteThe USA Today SOS thing won't have major weight in NBCs decision, but it is far more important than any poll, e-mail bombing, or advertiser Tweet spam attack because it is seen as something of a legitimate survey. Though, the RewardTV surveys are more important in the grand scheme of things.
ReplyDeleteBut why are we sweating these things anyway? I already predicted that CHUCK would be renewed. Why worry?
As for the NFL thing... so far it doesn't seem to be a level of concern for NBC that one might imagine.
ReplyDeleteMagnus - deadline.com has also thrown their hat in the ring as saying their sources say NBC is not thrilled with the pilots and may dramatically improve Chuck's chances. Does that go along with what you are hearing?
ReplyDeleteTony
Tony, I can't get into all the things I was told but if deadline.com is saying that, then I can confirm that is something I have heard as well, for whatever that is worth.
ReplyDeleteChuck made the FRONT page on USA today http://yfrog.com/gy8njiej
ReplyDeleteSee, now that is pretty cool right there.
ReplyDeleteI love u Magnus!!!
ReplyDeleteWell the Paul Reiser show just got cancelled . I guess a 0.9 just doesn't cut it these days lol . Community was sure lucky it got renewed when it did , 1.4 last night with just barely 3 million viewers ( 3.1 ) . NBC sure has taken a hit the last few weeks :( pop-POP !
ReplyDeleteIf Chuck is renewed, i'll marry you Magnus!
ReplyDeleteU dont know how u made me happy. :D
-lara
Well, as long as you are super model pretty! Or cute. Or willing. I mean, I am not picky.
ReplyDeleteDo you think a deal will be struck in time to keep all the new writers?
ReplyDeleteSue, I have no idea. If the writers want to wait it out, they will. If they are worried and get offers from other shows, then they will probably move on.
ReplyDeleteWhat are the chances that Ali would come back ?
ReplyDeleteI would think 0 , but what say the Magnificent ?
Kevin
Kevin, I haven't heard anything about Ali coming back. I imagine she will get tons of offers from other shows. I wouldn't be surprised if she is already in talks to be a show runner on something.
ReplyDelete